2011 Season Hurricane Names

• Arlene
• Bret
• Cindy
• Don
• Emily
• Franklin
• Gert
• Harvey
• Irene
• Jose
• Katia
• Lee
• Maria
• Nate
• Ophelia
• Philippe
• Rina
• Sean
• Tammy
• Vince
• Whitney

2011 Hurricane Season Forecasts

According to the recent forecasts (April and May 2011) by several hurricane and weather authorities, there will be an increased hurricane activity throughout the Atlantic region (includes the Caribbean). The report published on April 6, 2011 by Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray from the Colorado State University states that an above average probability of a major hurricane landfall is anticipated in the USA and the Caribbean. The Colorado State University report on the 2011 hurricane season predicts that the effects of El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation and abnormally warm sea surface temperature conditions in tropical Atlantic will result in high frequency of major hurricanes throughout 2011.

Where Will 2011 Hurricanes Make Landfall in the USA

Researchers from the Colorado State University predict that at least one major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane) will make a landfall on each of the following coastal areas of the United States of America:

• Entire U.S. coastline – 72% chance of a major hurricane landfall in 2011 (average hurricane landfall for last century is 52%)
• U.S. East Coast Including Florida Peninsula – 48% chance of a major hurricane landfall in 2011 (average hurricane landfall for last century is 31%)
• Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 47% chance of a major hurricane landfall in 2011 (average hurricane landfall for last century is 30%)

Chances of Hurricanes Make Landfall in the Caribbean in 2011

Researchers from the Colorado State University further forecast the chances of a major hurricane making a landfall in the Caribbean during the 2011 Hurricane Season as follows:

• 61% chance of a major hurricane landfall in 2011 (average hurricane landfall for last century is 42%)

2011 Hurricane Season Forecasts and Predictions – Conclusion

It’s going to be a wild hurricane season again. It started with a major earthquake and tsunami in Japan, continued with increased tornado activity throughout the USA and will go on (as predicted) with major hurricanes throughout Summer and Fall of 2011.

It is predicted that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season will have significantly more activity than the average season between 1950 and 2000. Compared to the averages from the past, 2011 hurricane season is predicted to bring the following:

• 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9)
• 16 named storms (average is 9.6)
• 80 named storm days (average is 49.1)
• 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5)
• 5 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3)
• 10 major hurricane days (average is 5.0)

Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in Atlantic basin is expected to be approximately 175% of the long term average in 2011. In conclusion, conditions remain conducive for a very active hurricane season in 2011.

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While still in the Pacific Ocean and far away from land, Hurricane Jimena was a devastating Category 4 hurricane. Meantimely, Hurricane Jimena weakened to become category 3 hurricane and weakened further to a category 2 hurricane which it is at this moment. At the time of this post, center of Hurricane Jimena has reached the shores of southern Baja California in Mexico.

Mexican authorities issued hurricane warning for most of Baja peninsula, including the west coast from Agua Blanca to Punta Abreojos and east coast from La Paz to Mulege. Hurricane warning means that there is an imminent danger to life and property within 24 hours. Areas further north up Baja peninsula are under hurricane watch.

Winds of Hurricane Jimena are currently reaching maximum sustained speed of 105 mph (165 km/hr) which ranks Jimena as category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricane force winds of Jimena extend outward from the center up to 50 miles (85 km) and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

Hurricane Jimena is one of the strongest hurricanes of the 2009 hurricane season. Tens of thousands of residents and tourists have been evacuated from popular tourist areas of Los Cabos, Mexico. This whole area has been put under the state of emergency by the government of Mexico.

Projected path of Hurricane Jimena is above. Areas it will affect are already well known and expect a major blow in next few hours. Aside from being the strongest hurricane of the 2009 Pacific hurricane season, Jimena has also made name for itself by being a quickly developing hurricane. It first impressed meteorologists by developing from Tropical Depression to Category 3 hurricane in just 30 hours, then it took less than 24 hours to develop from Tropical Storm to Category 3 hurricane. That’s how little it takes for little disturbance and grouping of disorganized cloud to develop into a savage hurricane.

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Tropical Storm Erika formed on Tuesday, September 1, 2009 in the Atlantic Ocean. Erika first reached the Tropical Storm status when it was 390 miles (630 km) east of the northernmost islands of the Leeward archipelago making Erika the fifth named tropical storm of the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season. When Tropical Storm Erika formed it had sustained winds of 50 mph (80 km/h).

According to latest updates from the National Hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Erica slightly weakened on Wednesday, September 3, 2009 to sustained speed of winds reaching 45 mph. At that time Erika was located 160 miles east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. The Projected Path of Erica suggests that it will continue to move west and north at approximately 7 miles per hour.

Following countries had the tropical storm warning issued and are advised to keep watch on the hurricane: Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, Anguilla, St. Martin, Saba and St. Eustatius. It is possible Tropical Storm Erika will strengthen on Thursday to reach sustained speed winds of 60 – 65 miles per hour. This would still not classify it as a hurricane. Come weekend, Erika is expected to weaken again.

Even though tropical storm warning was not issued for Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Cuba, the projected path map suggest that these countries could be affected by Erika.

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Tropical Storm Danny is expected to become second hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Since its formation as tropical depression 3 days ago, Danny has become more organized this morning. The projected path of Hurricane Danny is not 100% clear yet. At present time, the tropical storm is moving westwards, but is expected to take a northward turn in the next 24 – 36 hours. As it strengthens to a possible category 1 hurricane, Danny will pass by the Carolinas and New England of the USA and will continue moving northward past Canadian Maritimes on its way to the North Atlantic.

Hurricane Danny is not expected to make a landfall in the USA, but many aspects could affect the projected path and send the cyclone west. Canadian province Newfoundland may experience landfall of Hurricane Danny early Sunday morning. Danny is expected to downgrade back to tropical depression by that time.

Hurricane Danny 2009 Projected Path Image by Wunderground

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Tropical Storm Ignacio that formed in Eastern Pacific a few days ago is slowly weakening and is expected to dissipate completely soon. There will likely be no further warnings issued. As per latest updates provided by the National hurricane Center, Tropical Storm Ignacio is currently about 1110 miles (1785 km) west of Baja California peninsula in Mexico.

The remnants of this tropical storm which degraded to a Tropical Depression Ignacio are moving northwest at 14 mph (22 km/hr). Maximum sustained winds of Tropical Storm Ignacio are currently at 35 mph (55 km/hr) and is moving slowly west-northwest, but is expected to take a turn westwards on Saturday morning by which time it will be degraded into a low level easterly flow.

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Another named tropical storm formed in the Atlantic, near the Dominican Republic shortly after Hurricane Bill has dissipated and is expected to follow similar path. Tropical Storm Danny is currently located about 320 miles (510 km) northeast of Nassau, Bahamas and about 550 miles (885 km) south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, USA. Tropical Storm Danny has strengthened since it formed yesterday and is currently reaching sustained winds of 60 mph (95 kmph). It is expected that Danny will continue to strengthen and will upgrade to category 1 Hurricane on Saturday morning.

The winds of Tropical Storm Danny currently extend to 205 miles (335 km) from its center so as it moves nothwards, the effects of Tropical Storm Danny may be felt by people living along the shore of the east coast USA from Carolinas northward to New England.

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Projected path of Hurricane Bill was uncertain as natural forces of such magnitude can change direction at any time. Expectation at present time are that Hurricane Bill will move northwest affecting east coast USA and Atlantic Canada. Luckily, it is expected that the eye of Hurricane Bill will not make landfall until it has degraded to become tropical storm on Monday when it is expected to reach southeast Newfoundland, Canada. Bill has actually weakened a little since yesterday but will remain a category 3 hurricane for the rest of today (Friday, August 21, 2009) and tomorrow (Saturday, August 22, 2009).

Americans living along the coast of New England as well as Canadians from the Maritime Provinces should get ready for possible fallen trees and power lines, strong winds and surges from the ocean. While it’s not completely unheard of for Canada to get hit by a hurricane, it is not a common occurrence. Bill has been raging in the Atlantic for a few days and it’s might will stay strong even in cooler waters surrounding Atlantic Canada. Category 1 or 2 hurricane can cause a lot of damage and if Hurricane Bill retains its strength until its expected landfall on Monday, it’s gonna wreak havoc in Eastern Canada. Meanwhile – residents and visitors to Bermuda are surely relieved knowing that Bill will not be making landfall there. Heavy rains, strong winds and high waves will still hit the islands, but not at a magnitude comparable to a landfall.

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When Hurricane Bill formed in the Atlantic, it was anticipated that it will grow in strength and will reach category 3 hurricane status. As per latest update from National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Bill upgraded to a devastating Category 4 hurricane earlier today (Wednesday, August 19, 2009) after its winds reached 135 mph. Hurricane Bill is not only the first hurricane in the Atlantic in 2009, it is also possible that it will be one of the strongest of this year’s entire hurricane season. Meteorologists anticipate that Hurricane Bill will get stronger in next few days.

The eye of Hurricane Bill was roughly 460 miles east of the Leeward Islands this morning and as projected, the hurricane is heading towards Bermuda where it could get in a three to four days. Some chances exist that Hurricane Bill won’t make landfall and will instead move across the ocean between Bermuda and US east coast. Category 4 hurricane will however cause rip currents and wave swells of significant proportions so people near the coast will notice the effect of Bill when it gets close enough. More Hurricane Bill updates coming soon.

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Tropical Depression Ana (sometimes misspelled as Tropical Depression Anna) remains highly disorganized. Ana started as weather disturbance but failed to collect itself together to form a hurricane or a tropical storm for that matter and remains largely scattered across the Central Caribbean region. Even though disorganized, Tropical Depression Ana still creates rainy weather with possibility of floods and mudslides. At this time, Ana is just south of Puerto Rico and is moving slowly towards the Dominican Republic. The effects will be felt strongly this afternoon already (Monday, August 17, 2009). Puerto Rico, British Virgin Islands, US Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic and Haiti have tropical storm watch in effect which means this depression could grow into a tropical storm within next 24 hours (sustained winds of at least 39 miles per hour are needed for Ana to reach the Tropical Storm category).

As seen from tracking picture above, Tropical Depression Ana will affect north eastern coast of Cuba and southern islands of the Bahamas as they lie on Ana’s projected path between Puerto Rico and Florida. Ana is moving in the west-northwest direction at 28 miles per hour. The track is expected in projected direction, however the speed of movement is likely to decrease over next one or two days.

Tropical Depression Ana currently reaches maximum sustained winds of 35 miles per hour and is predicted to decrease in strength, rather than increase, in which case it will be degraded to tropical wave. Despite weakened winds, the rainfall as result of Tropical Depression Ana will be plentiful, reaching up to 6 inches in some areas.

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Hurricane Claudette which is actually a Tropical Storm Claudette weakened as it reached the shores of mainland United States. Moving over Florida, the eye of Claudette is now in Alabama and will continue to move over Mississippi tomorrow (Tuesday, August 18, 2009) and its affect may reach as far as Tennessee, Arizona or even further north. By that time Claudette will weaken significantly however those areas may experience heavy rainfall. Latest update with projected path and storm tracking is in the picture above.

Tropical Storm Claudette is now downgraded to a tropical depression as its sustained winds dropped below 30 mph. Claudette is the first named storm of 2009 that reached mainland of the USA. While no significant damage as result of Claudette has been reported and none is expected, some flooding can still occur within its projected path.

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