Hurricane Predictions and Forecasts for the 2011 Season
With the 2011 Hurricane Season officially upon us, let’s take a look at what weather experts are saying, what they anticipate and what their predictions and forecasts are for the 2011 Hurricane Season in the Caribbean, the Pacific and Atlantic regions. But first, these are the names that will be assigned to notable tropical storms and hurricanes in 2011:
2011 Season Hurricane Names
- Arlene
- Bret
- Cindy
- Don
- Emily
- Franklin
- Gert
- Harvey
- Irene
- Jose
- Katia
- Lee
- Maria
- Nate
- Ophelia
- Philippe
- Rina
- Sean
- Tammy
- Vince
- Whitney
2011 Hurricane Season Forecasts
According to the recent forecasts (April and May 2011) by several hurricane and weather authorities, there will be an increased hurricane activity throughout the Atlantic region (includes the Caribbean). The report published on April 6, 2011 by Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray from the Colorado State University states that an above average probability of a major hurricane landfall is anticipated in the USA and the Caribbean. The Colorado State University report on the 2011 hurricane season predicts that the effects of El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation and abnormally warm sea surface temperature conditions in tropical Atlantic will result in high frequency of major hurricanes throughout 2011.
Where Will 2011 Hurricanes Make Landfall in the USA
Researchers from the Colorado State University predict that at least one major hurricane (category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane) will make a landfall on each of the following coastal areas of the United States of America:
- Entire U.S. coastline – 72% chance of a major hurricane landfall in 2011 (average hurricane landfall for last century is 52%)
- U.S. East Coast Including Florida Peninsula – 48% chance of a major hurricane landfall in 2011 (average hurricane landfall for last century is 31%)
- Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 47% chance of a major hurricane landfall in 2011 (average hurricane landfall for last century is 30%)
Chances of Hurricanes Make Landfall in the Caribbean in 2011
Researchers from the Colorado State University further forecast the chances of a major hurricane making a landfall in the Caribbean during the 2011 Hurricane Season as follows:
- 61% chance of a major hurricane landfall in 2011 (average hurricane landfall for last century is 42%)
2011 Hurricane Season Forecasts and Predictions – Conclusion
It’s going to be a wild hurricane season again. It started with a major earthquake and tsunami in Japan, continued with increased tornado activity throughout the USA and will go on (as predicted) with major hurricanes throughout Summer and Fall of 2011.
It is predicted that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season will have significantly more activity than the average season between 1950 and 2000. Compared to the averages from the past, 2011 hurricane season is predicted to bring the following:
- 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9)
- 16 named storms (average is 9.6)
- 80 named storm days (average is 49.1)
- 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5)
- 5 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3)
- 10 major hurricane days (average is 5.0)
Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in Atlantic basin is expected to be approximately 175% of the long term average in 2011. In conclusion, conditions remain conducive for a very active hurricane season in 2011.